Employment

In 2017, unemployment increased in all five towns, continuing an overall upward trend since 2013. Tara has seen the most significant change, with unemployment increasing by 2.7 percentage points in 2017, and nearly 7 percentage points since 2013 (from 4% to 10.7%). Dalby, Chinchilla and Miles-Wandoan all remain below the Queensland benchmark, in line with historic (pre-CSG) relative unemployment rates.

Community insights garnered from interviews highlighted the following themes and explanations for the changes to local employment rates:

• Recent layoffs (e.g. Origin Energy in April 2018) and business closures contributed to a heightened awareness of unemployment.
• Growth in unemployment is partially attributed to the influx of long-term unemployed people to the communities—in particular Miles and Chinchilla—who are attracted by affordable rents and financial incentives through the Australian Government’s jobseeker Relocation Assistance program.
• In Dalby, Chinchilla, Miles and Wandoan, there was an acknowledgement by most interviewees that despite the turbulence, these towns still track well in terms of unemployment (compared to the state benchmark).

Business income

While all towns have seen a small overall decline in total business income since the peak around 2013, all show a stepwise increase in total business income and number of businesses. However, the legacy impact of overinflated wages during the boom a common concern for businesses. Some people believe this is now returning to more “normal”, sustainable levels in the absence of CSG labour competition.

Perceptions and the distribution of benefits within communities vary:

• In Chinchilla and Dalby, interviewees reported a boost in business confidence in the last 12 months, and an overall sense that “things are steadying”.
• Miles is still hurting – business confidence and incomes are perceived to be low, expenses and wages are reportedly high, the agriculturally-dependent economy has endured a difficult growing season, and there is an expectation that the present state will continue for at least the short-term.
• Wandoan businesses are struggling with some closing, interviewees reported.

Individual income

The average taxable income in all five towns has historically sat below the Queensland benchmark. They followed a similar trend up to 2013/14; since then, however, town trends have diverged:

• Wandoan has seen overall growth (5.5%), largely due to substantial increase in 2015/16
• Dalby and Tara have seen a small decline or plateau (< 3% change)
• Miles has seen a significant decline (9%) in personal income since 2013/14
• Chinchilla average income decreased by 4.6% since 2013/14, but appears to have experienced an overall stepwise change on its historic income performance, and has remained above the Queensland benchmark since 2011/12.

People interviewed in each town were not surprised that taxable income has stayed elevated since construction ended. It was commonly reported that workers are still employed on the higher wages created by CSG labour competition during the boom.

Housing

Overall, housing markets are perceived to be steadying in the Western Downs. Rental markets are stabilising or improving, and low vacancy rates were reported in 2018 community interviews. Following a general downwards trend since 2013 in number of house sales, all five towns saw an increase in 2017. Coinciding with this, some interviewees have observed increased foreclosures (e.g. in Dalby and Chinchilla). Particularly in Chinchilla and Miles, declines in house values are still evident. However, most people interviewed had a sense that the situation had “hit rock-bottom” and that values will now start to stabilise.

Crime

All towns, except Wandoan, have seen their total crime rate increase by more than 60% since 2013; in 2017, they sit well above the Queensland benchmark. Community insights suggest that this increase in crime may be attributed to:

• Greater disposable incomes and substance availability (drugs)
• An influx of low income individuals, which is anecdotally linked to a spike in juvenile crime and “economic” offences (e.g. unregistered vehicles)
• Increased financial stress and relationship breakdowns exacerbating domestic violence
• More proactive enforcement strategies by police, which increases the reporting of offences

Drug-related crime has emerged as a key crime issue in all five towns in the last three years, both in terms of crime statistics and community perceptions. Interviewees acknowledged that drug use is a growing problem in most places, and not necessarily related to CSG activity. Juvenile crime and domestic violence were also frequently raised as growing community concerns.

For more information about this research contact Dr Katherine Witt k.witt@uq.edu.au or ph. 07 3346 3442.